Dentist Wins The Cheltenham Gold Cup

March 19th, 2011 Gambling Tips Master Posted in Horseracing | No Comments »

Yesterday we witnessed one of the most exciting Cheltenham Gold Cups in history. Three previous winners and the ‘new kid on the block’ came together in a most exciting run to the finish, the event only soured a little when last year’s winner was pulled up just after the second last fence with a burst blood vessel. Not only was the finish exciting, but it set several records. One record which won’t be broken for a long time is that of the winning rider, an amateur in the sport, and a dentist by day.

Sam Waley-Cohen is a full-time dentist by profession. He is also the son of Robert Waley-Cohen, owner of Long Run, the eventual winner of yesterday’s Gold Cup. Long Run was sent out favourite with bookmakers after being backed in by punters and has become the first six year old to win the race since 1933. Waley-Cohen is the first amateur in thirty years, and most definitely the first dentist, to ever ride a winner in the Gold Cup. The decision by Ladbrokes to take on Imperial Commander paid off with the horse not finishing the race.

What of the others? History books will show that Denman and Kauto Star finished second and third. Those that saw the race will remember the four horses challenging each other coming to the home straight. Imperial Commander was the first to crack with his rider pulling him up after the second last fence. While Long Run powered away to a seven-length win, the two old timers (both aged eleven) just didn’t have the legs to catch him – they still stayed on, however.

What about Long Run, where’s his future? You can bet on him being back to defend his title next season. Aintree? Probably not. He’s not really suited to the track. He’s certainly not a Grand National type of horse. Perhaps another crack at the King George VI Chase, which he won back in January, or a brief run in France in the Champion Hurdle at Auteuil. He’s only six so there are plenty of opportunities for him in the future. In the mean time, we can all sit back and ponder what was a great Cheltenham Gold Cup.

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Bookies Take Cheltenham Gold Cup Risk

March 18th, 2011 Gambling Tips Master Posted in Horseracing | No Comments »

The last day of racing at the Cheltenham Festival is with us and that means just one thing – the Cheltenham Gold Cup. Imperial Commander won the event last season and has been a firm favourite ever since. Denman and Kauto Star have been pressing for favouritism at various stages, but late betting has seen them both ease just a little.

One of the biggest surprises in Gold Cup betting has been Ladbrokes‘ decision to take Imperial Commander on. They have pushed his price out to 9/2 and made him an equal favourite with Go Long. Denman and Kauto Star are out to 6/1 jointly on the second line of betting.

Bookmakers will occasionally take risks with their betting strategies, and they rarely lose. Ladbrokes are probably hoping that the 6/1 on offer for the two previous winners may attract some bigger bets, and I’m sure they will. What is probably not being said is that Go Long has had a few big bets placed on him – that’s often the case when bookmakers decide to risk a horse – they are trying to spread the bets wider and with only one payout for a win, it’s a wise decision on their part.

If you like Imperial Commander, then you may want to jump all over the odds being offered by Ladbrokes. If you haven’t had enough of the Cheltenham Festival betting, never fear. Betting has already opened on next year’s Festival. You can back Big Bucks to take a record fourth World Hurdle. There is one bookmaker offering 8/1 about Big Bucks in next year’s Gold Cup – somehow I think connections will keep him in the World Hurdle. Big Bucks has been the bookmakers’ biggest loser this week with some £15 million being won by punters on him alone.

Big Bucks is off to Aintree now and we will be as well. The Grand National is a timeless event steeped in history so if you’re a jumps racing fan, you have to see it live at least once in your life.

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Who’s Hot On Day Three Of The Cheltenham Festival

March 17th, 2011 Gambling Tips Master Posted in Horseracing | No Comments »

Day three of the Cheltenham Festival is looming as a very interesting betting affair. This time yesterday the market was fairly slow, and today is no different. A check of tomorrow’s race card shows a lot of movement in betting, especially in the Gold Cup. Racing for days three and four move to the new track. I wonder if it too will be as slow as the old track? The state of the track certainly has punters and bookmakers a little wary.

Big Bucks is the tip of the day having been backed into even money favourite in the Ladbrokes World Hurdle. The only other horse really in the betting is Grands Crus at 3/1. You can have double figures around the rest of the field. This should be an interesting tussle between the top two.

Other strong moves include Albertas Run in the third who has been backed solidly into 13/2 and Galant Nuit in to 7/1 in the second last on the card.

Wishfull Thinking is rock solid in the first at 3/1 and will take a lot of beating. However, favourites are not faring well this year so it may pay to look elsewhere. Mr Gardner was the biggest mover in ante post betting and has settled at 13/2 – tidy each way odds.

Today’s racing is probably the toughest of the four days at Cheltenham. Almost half the races on the card have favourites at 4/1 or longer – a good indication of how close the horses are today. It’s very similar to a day at Aintree where the Grand National betting often sends out favourites at better than 10/1. And that reminds – the Grand National is only three weeks away.

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Who’s Hot On Day Two Of The Cheltenham Festival

March 16th, 2011 Gambling Tips Master Posted in Horseracing | No Comments »

Day one was an interesting betting adventure at the Cheltenham Festival.  We started the day reasonably well with Al Ferof winning at 10/1, but then had nothing apart from Reve De Sivola finishing third late in the day. Perhaps we can make amends today although the get out stakes is a bumper, and that could make things a little interesting.

There have not been a lot of market moves for today with online bookmakers showing quiet activity. Alpha Beat has been an easing favourite in the first and there has been some money around for Some Target (in to 8/1).  It could be worth following each way.

In the second, the support has been strong for both First Lieutenant (7) and Rock On Ruby (15/2. So Young is still the firm favourite ahead of Oscars Well. A lot of tipsters have gone for Oscars Well so don’t be surprised if it starts as favourite. Rock On Ruby is our tip from the ‘who’s hot’ category.

The money’s been hot for Time For Rupert at 11/4 and he continues to firm as favourite. There is also money for Aiteen Thirtythree (in to 8/1) while the remainder of the field has eased a touch. Time For Rupert is certainly the horse to beat in this race. Betting is almost dead in the remaining races with little movement worth reporting on.

Sparky May was an interesting runner yesterday. Well beaten by 10 lengths into second, she may well go on to Aintree, although I can’t see her appearing in the Grand National. The winner, Quevega, may also turn up at Aintree – she is all class and winning a good race there wouldn’t surprise at all.

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Who’s Hot On Day One Of The Cheltenham Festival

March 15th, 2011 Gambling Tips Master Posted in Horseracing | No Comments »

Day one of the Cheltenham Festival has finally arrived and we’re ready to check out which horses are hot and worth following and which horses punters have suddenly taken a disliking too. It’s not until race day that punters (and bookmakers) can see what the track conditions are like, who’s riding which horse, and whether or not there have been any last minute problems.

Race day is often the day that connections finally start to place their bets as well, and that can have significant effect on the market. For day one, there have been several market movers, but surprisingly, not as many as previous years.

There has been a little money for Al Ferof in the first with some bookmakers having him into 15/2. The best odds around are 10/1, but that is still in from 12/1 over the last few days. Al Ferof was runner up to Cue Card (5/2) in last year’s Bumper and has done well over the fences since. Cue Card is still the horse to beat in this race, however, Al Ferof is worth plenty of thought on an each way basis – especially if you can get around 9/1 or 10/1 (at Bet365).

In the Arkle Challenge, the only market move of note is third favourite Finians Rainbow who has drifted slightly to 5/1.  In race three, Sunnyhillboy has firmed to be 6/1 equal favourite with Bensalem in what is shaping as a wide open betting race.  There is also some late money for Reve de Sivola in to 10/1, another with a solid each way chance.

On to the fifth race and here Garde Champetre has eased slightly to 5/1 while Maljimar has firmed to 6/1. This is another open betting race so while the money is running for Maljimar, grab some of the each way odds on offer. Of the other races, Laccordioniste has firmed into 10/1 in race six while Definity has firmed into 6/1 favouritism in the last – both worth looking at on an each way basis. There are some good value horses to choose from there with many of them capable of showing a profit even if they only run a place.

The start of the Cheltenham Festival signals the countdown to the Grand National at Aintree. Grand National betting has The Midnight Club as the firming favourite at 10/1, however, there are still plenty of horses still in the market – if you like the favourite, bet on it now in ante post markets while it’s still well priced.

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Binocular Shock Omission From Champion Hurdle

March 14th, 2011 Gambling Tips Master Posted in Horseracing | No Comments »

The first of this year’s big name withdrawals from the Cheltenham Festival have been announced and it’s the highly popular Binocular from tomorrow’s Champion Hurdle. Binocular had been backed into 7/2 with many of the leading bookmakers so his omission will come as a shock to most punters. Hurricane Fly and Menorah have now been backed into 7/2 equal favourites for the event.

Binocular’s omission is another interesting tale of woe when it comes to horses having been treated for an illness. Binocular’s trainer, the popular Nicky Henderson had Binocular tested before final acceptances to see whether the horse still had any traces of the medication used to treat him several weeks ago. The blood tests came back positive, and rather than risking the horse returning a positive on race day, he withdrew him.

Some drugs can help to boost (or slow down) a horse on race day so they have been banned from use on or just before race day. These drugs can be used to treat horses, but the treatment must stop early enough for the horse to be clear come race day. The drug used to treat Binocular should have cleared his system by now, and may well have come race day, however, rather than risk fines and possible disqualification, the trainer had no option but to withdraw the horse from the race.

The withdrawal of Binocular has certainly thrown the race open a little and there has been plenty of support for Peddlers Cross in Champion Hurdle betting (in to 9/2 and still firming). He could be hard to toss although we still think Menorah is the one to beat.

Perhaps the connections can set Binocular for the Grand National meeting to be held at Aintree in a couple of weeks. He’s fit and ready to race and he should be clear of any substances by then.

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Cheltenham Festival Day Two

March 13th, 2011 Gambling Tips Master Posted in Horseracing | No Comments »

Ladies day at the Cheltenham Festival is the theme of day two and there are another seven great races to thrill punters and hunt racing fans.  While the Queen Mother Champion Chase is the day’s highlight, there is plenty of interest in the other races including the Coral Cup. The day’s racing includes:

  • The National Hunt Chase Challenge Cup (1:30pm) Class B 4m
  • The Neptune Investment Management Novices Hurdle (2:05pm) Class A Grade 1 hurdle 2m5f
  • The RSA Chase (2:40pm) Class A Grade 1 chase 3m
  • The Queen Mother Champion Chase (3:20pm) Class A Grade 1 chase 2m
  • The Coral Cup Handicap Hurdle (4:00pm) Class A Grade 3 handicap hurdle 2m5f
  • The Fred Winter Juvenile Novices Handicap Hurdle (4:40pm) listed race 2m
  • The Weatherbys Champion Bumper Open NH Flat Race (5:15pm) Class A Grade 1 flat race 2m

Day two will continue to use the old course and punters should be wary and check track conditions before placing bets. While track staff will work hard during the morning to make any repairs needed, there will still be a deal of cut in the track from the first day’s racing. If the track is soft, then it may cut up even more.

Jumps racing is thrilling to watch, however, picking winners is not always as easy at it seems. Bookmakers have made a living for decades by betting on horse racing and it’s still one of their more profitable arms. If you check the history of the Cheltenham Festival, you will see that some races have sprung some real surprise results over the years. Others can be quite reliable when it comes to backing favourites. If you know your history, then you can often walk away having had a profitable time at the Festival.

The same trends don’t apply at Aintree where many good horses have come to grief in the Grand National. For most punters, Grand National betting is nothing more than a lottery.

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Disappointing Field In The Queen Mother At Cheltenham

March 12th, 2011 Gambling Tips Master Posted in Horseracing | No Comments »

Confirmations for Ladies Day at the Cheltenham Festival have been announced and the first thing that stands out is the disappointing field in the day’s feature race, the Queen Mother Champion Chase. With only 11 runners confirmed, it could prove to be a difficult race for punters. Big Zeb and Master Minded are previous winners of the race and both go into this race with plenty of support. They currently equal favourite at 3/1 with Cheltenham Festival bookmakers.

Big Zeb is probably the better horse of the two, however, he is a ten year old now and they have a poor overall record in this race. Master Minded was a brilliant winner in 2008 and 2009, however, last year was a shocker all around for him. He seems to have come back full of zest and has won three from three. You can’t ask much more than that. Odds of 3/1 are a little short for our liking so we may just look elsewhere. Race confirmations are:

    BIG ZEB (IRE)
    CAPTAIN CEE BEE (IRE)
    CORNAS (NZ)
    FRENCH OPERA
    GOLDEN SILVER (FR)
    I’M SO LUCKY
    MAD MAX (IRE)
    MASTER MINDED (FR)
    SIZING EUROPE (IRE)
    SOMERSBY (IRE)
    WOOLCOMBE FOLLY (IRE)

The previous year’s Arkle has been a good guide to this race so that brings into contention both Somersby and Sizing Europe. Both horses look suited to this, however, much will depend on the ground. Somersby may be more suited with the track forecast to be slow come day 2. Sizing Europe won last year’s Arkle and the two miles is certainly his distance at present.

In race betting, Somersby has been well supported and continues to firm. He is in to 15/2 third favourite and as he firms the two favourites have been easing. Sizing Europe has had some support as well and is in to 10/1. I had selected Master Minded to win from Sizing Europe and Big Zeb, however, with confirmations in and the track looking to be soft,  lean more to Somersby. You can’t deny the abilities of the top two in betting, however.

The Queen Mother Champion Chase may be difficult to pick, but it’s nothing compared to the Grand National which is only a few weeks out. We still can’t find a winner that we can be confident with – but there’s still plenty of time.

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Jumps Racing And Odds On Prices

March 11th, 2011 Gambling Tips Master Posted in Horseracing | No Comments »

The Cheltenham Festival has its first odds on favourite as challengers start to drop away. The Mares hurdle on day one has been dominated in betting by Quevega, a previous winner of this race. Connections yesterday announced that the third favourite in ante post betting, Our Girl Salley, would not be starting in this year’s event.

Leading bookmakers immediately dropped Quevega’s price into the red at 10/11 and come race day, you may even see that firm up a little more, perhaps as short as 4/6. If you like her chances, I suggest you grab those odds now and not wait until race day. It does, however, raise an important question for punters – is it wise to back odds on horses in jumps races?

You can ‘do your dough’ in a lot of different ways when it comes to flat races. Going over the jumps virtually doubles that risk. When assessing risk, a horse at 2/1 on the flat should be out to around 4/1 over the jumps simply because of that increased risk. For a mare like Quevega, would she be good value at 1/2 or less? I’m not sure she would be.

Punters love the jumps races, they are a great spectacle and can offer good value. There are some bookmakers around that offer special betting promotions, for example ‘no runner no bet’, money back if your horse falls, or specialized offers such as money back if your horse falls while leading. Look around for some of these options before jumping onto an odds-on favourite in jumps races. They can really help to reduce that risk factor.

The Grand National is no stranger to falls. Over the years, we have seen the field decimated by falls, lost riders, and retirements. This is what makes Grand National betting so interesting, and so tough on wallets at times.

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Who’s Ticking The Boxes For Day One At Cheltenham

March 10th, 2011 Gambling Tips Master Posted in Horseracing | No Comments »

The first day of the Cheltenham Festival is now only days away so this gives us a chance of perhaps snaring a winner or two at decent ante post prices. One of the popular methods used by many to select their bets is to see which horses fit the history of a particular race. So let’s see who is ticking those historical boxes at this point.

The Champion Hurdle is the main race of day one and the ante post favourite is Binocular (10/3)  from  Menorah (9/2) and Hurricane Fly (5/1). Historically, this race has been won by six and seven year olds that have won at their last start, have won at Cheltenham before, and are in the first six in betting, however, outright favourites haven’t had a lot of success. Peddlers Cross (6) , Oscar Whisky (12) and Dunguib (14) currently round out the top six in betting.

We can cross out Dunguib as he’s an eight year old.  The remaining five tick the previous win, top six in betting, and age boxes. That only leaves the ‘won at Cheltenham’ box although we shouldn’t ignore the outright favourites lack of success. That would see the Binocular crossed out. Of the remaining four, Hurricane Fly has never raced in England so we can cross him out as well. Oscar Whiskey doesn’t have good form at Cheltenham so he goes as well.

This leaves two stand out horses -  Menorah at 9/2 and Peddlers Cross at 6/1. Menorah’s last four starts have included three here at Cheltenham and looks well placed in this race. Peddlers Cross is in rare form having won six straight – he won the 2010 Neptune Novices’ Hurdle at Cheltenham and may surprise everyone at nice odds.  At odds of 9/2 and 6/1, you could back them both and return home with a tidy profit should one of them win. Bet365 are offering up to £200 in free bets (conditions apply as always) – it may be worth claiming some of that to back these two.

The Grand National is only three weeks away and betting is firming in that market as well. It will be interesting to see which horses back up again at Aintree after the Festival has come to a close.  Menorah did it with style last season winning at both Cheltenham and Aintree.

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