The betting odds surrounding South Africa for Saturday’s final rugby test against the British and Irish Lions are bordering on ridiculous. I have seen them as low as 1/4 with the average being around 3/10 and 1/3. The British and Irish Lions, on the other hand, are at 3 and 4/1 – well over the odds.
A careful analysis of the games so far show a South African outfit that, whilst very good at what they do, are far from perfect. They came within an inch of defeat in their last match against the Lions – it took a last ditch effort to see them fall across the line winners.
That effort doesn’t give me much confidence when the odds thrown up are 1/3. The Lions, on the other hand, have shown a lot of fighting spirit. The were by far the best team on the park last time out – the best everywhere except the final scoreboard. At 3/1 they certainly do look to be a value bet.
In a rather strange betting odds twist, South Africa, who currently have a 2-0 lead in the three test series, are 2/9 to make it 3-0. I would imagine if you thought they could win this final match to make it 3-0, you would rather take the 1/3 on offer for a straight out win rather than the 2/9 to make it 3-0.
For South Africa to win 2-1, which means they lose this final game, South Africa are 10/3. If you feel the Lions can win to make it 2-1 then you may find there is much value in the backing them to win at 4/1 rather than a 2-1 result at 10/1.
Online bookmakers often seem to do odd things when it comes to setting prices. I guess one of their aims is to try and channel your bets to outcomes that help their profit margins. If you’re smart, you can use these anomalies to your advantage – you just have to be quick.
